Chubbuck, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

713
FXUS65 KVEF 290910
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
210 AM PDT Thu May 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A significant warming trend will result in dangerously
hot temperatures across the area Friday and Saturday as high
temperatures climb to 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Sunday into
early next week, tropical moisture is expected to bring increased
cloud cover and precipitation chances to the region, with a
cooling trend expected through the first half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night.

The main story through Saturday is the heat. An Extreme Heat
Warning remains in effect for the southern Nevada and
southeastern California Valleys, including the Lake Mead National
Recreation Area Friday and Saturday where "Major" HeatRisk is
anticipated. This heat is a result of an anomalously strong ridge
(500 hPa heights 1-2 standard deviations above normal for this
time of year) that will develop across the Great Basin through
Saturday. Thus, given the building ridge, the warming trend that
we`ve had so far this week will continue today, with highs this
afternoon expected to be in the 90s and lower 100s for most, with
80s confined to the higher elevations. As the aforementioned ridge
continues strengthening, temperatures continue their upward trend
both Friday and Saturday, with Saturday the hottest day of the
forecast - and the hottest day we`ve had so far in 2025 - as
temperatures reach 10 to 15 degrees above normal areawide. Near
record and record high temperatures will be within reach on Friday
and Saturday, with Las Vegas` forecast high Friday of 103 only 3
degrees off of the record of 106 set in 1939, and subsequently
tied in 1969 and 1997. On Saturday, the high is forecast to be
104, which would tie the record set in 1977, which was then tied
in 1997, 2002, and 2015. Needless to say, those with outdoor plans
through the start of this weekend will need to take precautions
to protect themselves from heat-related illnesses, especially if
not accustomed to the hot temperatures. And, given the ridge of
high pressure, dry conditions with light breezes and plenty of
sunshine are expected through Saturday.

A change starts to arrive overnight Saturday night, as mid and
upper level moisture associated with a low progged to drift
east-northeastward across the northern Baja Peninsula into the
Desert Southwest results in an uptick in cloud cover across
southern portions of the forecast area. There is a low (10-25%) of
showers across southeastern San Bernardino and southern Mohave
Counties overnight Saturday night, though little in the way of
appreciable rainfall is expected during the overnight period, with
gusty winds possible with showers. Lows will remain on the mild
side, only falling into the mid 70s and 80s for locations along
and south of I-15, with 60s focused further north and in the
mountains.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday.

For the last few days, we have been watching the potential for
(and potential impacts associated with) 3 separate systems to
interact with one another. Unfortunately, confidence remains low-
to-moderate, as there are many variables that could drastically
alter the forecast. The three systems include: A cut off low
loitering off the coast of Baja California mid-through-late week,
future Tropical Storm Alvin pushing northward along the west coast
of Mexico, and a longwave trough digging southward along the
western CONUS from the Pacific Northwest.

The Baja cut off low will sit off the coast for several days,
allowing it to pick up substantial moisture before pushing inland
Sunday into Monday. Future Tropical Cyclone Alvin (currently
Tropical Depression One-E), is forecast to slowly move northward
along the western Mexico coast before weakening back into a
Tropical Depression and pushing into the Gulf of California. In
general, forcing associated with this tropical system should have
minimal impact to our forecast area, but mid-and-upper level
moisture associated with its remnants will get wrapped into the
Baja low, moving counter-clockwise into the Mojave and Sonoran
Deserts late- weekend into the start of next week. Meanwhile, the
aforementioned Baja low will push inland Sunday into Monday. The
combination of these two moisture surges will bring anomalous
moisture (250-300% of normal PWATs) to our forecast area. Expect
widespread slight-to- moderate chances of precipitation Sunday and
Sunday night across the CWA, with greatest chances south and east
of Interstate 15. Chances are not greater, as mid-to-upper level
moisture from TS Alvin could result in widespread thick cloud
cover on Sunday, which could limit convective potential.

Finally, the third system will impact the region Monday and
Tuesday. However, in the last 24 hours, there has been a
noticable decline in confidence regarding the details of this
Pacific Northwest trough. Looking at WPC`s Cluster Analysis, the
bulk of the uncertainty stems from the depth of the trough, while
there remains some uncertainty with timing. ECMWF ensemble means
show a noticeably weaker trough than 24 hours ago, while showing
the trough cutting off over the southeastern Pacific before
weakening and pushing inland across the Sonoran Desert (south of
our forecast area). GFS ensemble means hold onto the longwave
trough pushing through our forecast area Monday and Tuesday, but
are weaker as well. The NBM is still holding onto an increase of
PoPs in the southeastern Great Basin Monday and Tuesday (favoring
the GEFS) as this system taps into remnant moisture from the day
before, but forecast wind speeds have dropped considerably due to
the ease in forecast pressure gradients.

Temperatures will drop substantially on Sunday with the moisture
surge, allowing desert valleys to drop out of the 100s and into
the low-to-mid 90s. Temperatures drop further Tuesday and
Wednesday as heights fall across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
southwest winds are expected through the remainder of the overnight
period.  A return to a more typical wind pattern is expected
tomorrow, with northeast winds developing by mid-morning and then
turning southeast in the afternoon.  Speeds should generally remain
less than 8 knots with less than a 20 percent chance of seeing gusts
to 15 knots during the afternoon and early evening.  VFR conditions
will prevail with bases remaining AOA 20kft AGL through the TAF
period.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to those described above for
Harry Reid.  Elsewhere, sustained winds will generally be less than
15 knots and follow typical diurnal directional trends.  A few gusts
to 20 knots will be possible during the afternoon and early evening
in the Owens and Colorado River valleys, and the typical westerly
surge at KDAG is expected after 03Z. VFR conditions will prevail
with SCT to BKN skies and bases remaining AOA 20kft AGL through the
TAF period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Phillipson
LONG TERM...Soulat
AVIATION...Planz

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