Chubbuck, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

313
FXUS65 KVEF 080526
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
926 PM PST Fri Mar 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...The light shower activity over the eastern
portions of the area expected in eastern Lincoln, eastern Clark, and
southern Mohave counties today, but impacts will be minimal. Gusty
northwest winds continue in the southwestern Great Basin today
before north winds focus along the Colorado River Valley on
Saturday. Temperatures moderate back to seasonal normals over the
weekend before unsettled weather returns next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Our departing system looks quite impressive on satellite,
but its effects on our area are dwindling. Last night and today, it
dropped 2-3 inches of snow in the Hualapai Mountains and lesser
amounts along I-40 near Fort Rock. Latest radar images show very
light returns from Primm to Peach Springs, but these should quickly
fade now that the sun has set. A dry and mostly-calm weekend is in
store across the area with just some lingering north winds tomorrow,
particularly in the Laughlin-Needles region. The quiet conditions
are short-lived as another system brings gusty winds and
precipitation chances Monday and Tuesday, mainly across the southern
half of the forecast area. A stronger trough is still on track to
move in during the second half of the work week, bringing widespread
precipitation chances and stronger winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.

Upper low currently spinning over west central Arizona will continue
to push east this afternoon and overnight. Still dealing with some
precipitation on the backside of the low over Mohave County along
with some upslope orographic showers over the higher terrain of
southern Nevada. Additional snow accumulations in southern Mohave
County are expected to remain light with generally an inch or less.
With loss of daytime heating, we can expect to see showers taper off
this evening along with decreasing clouds.

Gusty northwest to north winds are still occurring across much of
the area due to a increased surface pressure gradient behind the
low. These gradients are not expected to relax until Saturday
afternoon, so we can expect to see these gusty northerly winds to
continue through the morning hours before winds start to diminish
during the afternoon, although gusty north winds are likely to
continue through the afternoon south of Davis Dam.

With the ridge building in behind the low, we can expected to see
temperatures warm through the weekend and be near seasonal norms by
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.

An active pattern returns next week with a series of storm systems
set to impact the Desert Southwest. The first of these moves
through Monday and Tuesday in the form of a closed low that opens
up into a trough as it progresses inland. With an expected storm
track through southern CA and into AZ, any impacts in our area
will be limited. Latest NBM has the highest PoPs south of I-15,
with 30-60% chances. Probabilities for 0.50" of QPF get up to 25%
in the Hualapai and Spring Mountains. Even probabilities for
0.10" of QPF are 50% or less across the entire area, so
precipitation is likely going to be light with this system. With
forecast snow levels around 5000-6000 feet, light snow
accumulations are possible in the aforementioned mountains, but
chances for 4"+ are only 10-20%. Gusty conditions will accompany
this system as well, but chances for impactful winds are ~30%.

Ensemble guidance shows a second, but more robust-looking, trough
approaching our area mid- to late-week. Both the Euro and GFS
ensemble means show IVT values above the 90th percentile of
climatology Wednesday night into Thursday. This is promising for
the higher terrain, with 50-90% chances of 8"+ of snow in the
Sierra, White, and Spring Mountains. Similar chances for 2"+ exist
across most of our southern Great Basin zones and elevations
above 5000 feet in Mohave County. In the valleys, chances of
0.10"+ are 60% or higher across the CWA, with 25-50% chances of
0.50"+ in places like Las Vegas, Kingman, and Barstow. While it`s
still early and things can, and will, change, this system appears
similar to the one we saw February 13th (a progressive, neutral
or slightly negatively-tilted trough with PWAT values 150-200% of
climatology that resulted in 0.57" of rain for Las Vegas).
Southwest winds are forecast to increase along with the
precipitation chances. Probabilities for 40+ mph gusts range from
50-90% across the entire area, so wind impacts are likely to
accompany this system as well.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Northerly
winds persist through the night with speeds of around 10 knots
and intermittent moderate gusts under 20 knots. Gusts of 20 knots
or higher should return in the early morning hours sometime
between 10Z and 14Z. These gusts begin to decrease in the
afternoon along with a wind shift to the northeast. Southwesterly
winds should return in the evening with speeds of under 10 knots.
Mid and upper level clouds should decrease this morning with SKC
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Northerly winds persist
across most of the forecast area through Saturday evening. In the
Las Vegas Valley, winds should increase with gusts over 20 knots by
sunrise, then gradually decreasing in the afternoon. Along the
Colorado River, gusty winds will continue through tonight. Winds
will increase at both terminals later in the morning, peaking
between 25 and 30 knots, then gradually decrease in the afternoon.
Gusty winds do not appear likely at KBIH or KDAG. Instead, winds
will follow a diurnal pattern at both terminals with speeds below 10
knots during the day. Mid and upper level clouds decrease this
morning with SKC expected through the remainder of the forecast
period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Woods
SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Meltzer

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